Just a place to jot down my musings.

Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts

Monday, November 1, 2010

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics"

Given the eagerness with which it is quoted and re-quoted (often without attribution), there surely must be some truth to Benjamin Disraeli's complaint against that body of knowledge which takes as its subject the analysis of aggregates of information. (Perhaps this can be proven statistically!) 

Now I have no problems with the actual content of the discipline; on the contrary, I am deeply fascinated by the complexity and the power of statistics, even given how little I know, and am always interested in learning more about the field. Nevertheless, it seems true that human beings are simply not hard-wired to intuit probability and statistics; we would much rather deal in hard certainties than in fuzzy likelihoods. (Think about how easy it is to catch a ball, and about how complicated the actual physical model has to be to explain it!) This is perhaps why there is such blatant abuse of statistics everywhere, from tabloids to otherwise-respectable economic journals. Were this field of knowledge a living creature, tender-hearted defenders would have undoubtedly established numerous Societies for the Prevention of Cruelty to Statistics throughout the world by now.

Why pearls, and why strung at random?

In his translation of the famous "Turk of Shirazghazal of Hafez into florid English, Sir William Jones, the philologist and Sanskrit scholar and polyglot extraordinaire, transformed the following couplet:

غزل گفتی و در سفتی بیا و خوش بخوان حافظ

که بر نظم تو افشاند فلک عقد ثریا را


into:

Go boldly forth, my simple lay,
Whose accents flow with artless ease,
Like orient pearls at random strung.

The "translation" is terribly inaccurate, but worse, the phrase is a gross misrepresentation of the highly structured organization of Persian poetry. Regardless, I picked it as the name of my blog for a number of reasons: 
1) I don't expect the ordering of my posts to follow any rhyme or reason
2) Since "at random strung" is a rather meaningless phrase, I decided to go with the longer but more pompous "pearls at random strung". I rest assured that my readers are unlikely to deduce from this an effort on my part to arrogate some of Hafez's peerless brilliance!

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Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States
What is this life if, full of care,
We have no time to stand and stare.
—W.H. Davies, “Leisure”